Methodology, published in full

How we can say a day will hold before it happens.

Aisle does not predict the future and does not claim to. It does something narrower and far more useful: it runs your own run of show thousands of times against the way blocks like these actually behave, then tells you the share of those runs that finish inside your window, which block breaks it, and how many minutes of buffer close the gap. Below is the whole method, the reference spreads it uses, and a full worked example you can check line by line.

The four steps

1. Each block gets a range, not a number
A block planned at 45 minutes is not a 45 minute block. Aisle gives it a floor (the shortest you would accept), your plan as the most likely case, and a realistic worst case drawn from the published spread for that kind of block. You can override the worst case per block when you know your own supplier better than a benchmark does.
2. The day is run 1,200 to 2,000 times
Every run draws a duration for every block from a triangular distribution across that range, then cascades the day forward exactly as the real clock would. Nothing is averaged: a run where dinner and speeches both drift is a run you get to see.
3. The runs are scored
The score starts as the share of runs that finish inside your end time. It is then reduced for exposure on hard stops, meaning blocks like a music curfew that cannot move, and for runs where portraits fall after last light. Those two are weighted because they are the failures a client remembers.
4. The fixes are ranked by score gained
Aisle re-simulates the day with each candidate change applied, one at a time, and keeps the three that raise the score the most. That is why a recommendation carries a number instead of an opinion.

What the score is not

It is not a promise, an insurance product, or a weather forecast. It is a statement about your plan, not about your suppliers. The same plan always returns the same score, because the simulation is seeded from the plan itself. Change a block and the number moves, which is the only reason it is worth showing a client.

Where the numbers come from

Aisle ships with reference spreads for the block patterns that make up almost every wedding and gala day. They are calibrated from published event production practice and from the overrun patterns planners report on these specific blocks: arrival, service pace and speeches drift, contracted band sets do not. They are starting values, and they are visible rather than hidden, so you can judge them. As your own events run through the Command Room, your recorded actuals are what your future scores lean on.

Block pattern	Planned to worst case	Runs long in
Load-in, build and styling Load-in slips when access windows are shared with the venue.	0.95x to 1.35x	42% of runs
Arrival, welcome and canapes Guest arrival and seating is the single most under-planned block.	1.00x to 1.45x	55% of runs
Ceremony or keynote Ceremonies rarely start on time and rarely run long once started.	1.00x to 1.20x	38% of runs
Portraits and film Portraits absorb whatever time is left, and lose the light.	1.00x to 1.40x	48% of runs
Dinner service Service pace is set by the kitchen pass, not the plan.	1.05x to 1.35x	61% of runs
Speeches and toasts Speeches are the highest-variance block on any event day.	1.10x to 1.80x	72% of runs
Programme, awards, auction Awards and programmes drift with every unscripted thank you.	1.05x to 1.45x	58% of runs
Band, DJ and dancing Contracted sets hold to the minute.	1.00x to 1.10x	15% of runs
Anything unmatched Baseline spread for a block with no matched pattern.	1.00x to 1.25x	35% of runs

Cost per guest, by tier

The same logic applies to money. A budget line is checked per guest against the band a given tier normally needs, so a plan that cannot be delivered at the price is flagged before a contract is signed rather than after.

Category	Medium to high	High end	Ultra luxury
Catering & beverage	$145 to $240	$240 to $420	$420 to $900
Florals & installation	$55 to $110	$110 to $260	$260 to $700
Lighting & production	$40 to $90	$90 to $200	$200 to $550
Photography & film	$25 to $55	$55 to $120	$120 to $300
Rentals & linens	$30 to $70	$70 to $150	$150 to $400

Figures are per attending guest, in US dollars, excluding tax and the studio fee.

Worked example on sample data

Sample wedding, 140 guests, coastal estate

Call time 2:00pm, music curfew 12:30am, sunset 8:12pm. This is not a client event and no real event data is used. The numbers below are produced live by the same engine in your studio, on this page, every time it loads.

Deliverability Score

Undeliverable as planned

Finishes in window

0 of 100

across 2,000 simulated runs

Buffer that closes it

165 min

earlier call time, no block cut

On paper this plan ends at 1:20am, comfortably inside the curfew. The simulation disagrees: the median run finishes 2:41am and the worst tenth finishes 3:14am, which is 164 minutes past the curfew. When the day does break, Supplier load-in and styling is the block that did the most damage in 39 of 100 of those runs.

Every block, and the range it was given

Block	Planned	Floor	Worst case	Pattern
Supplier load-in and styling	180 min	171 min	243 min	load-in
Guest arrival and welcome drinks	45 min	45 min	65 min	arrival
Ceremony	40 min	40 min	48 min	ceremony
Canapes and receiving line	75 min	75 min	109 min	arrival
Golden hour portraits	45 min	45 min	63 min	portraits
Dinner service, four courses	130 min	130 min	176 min	dinner
Speeches	45 min	45 min	81 min	speeches
Band first set and first dance	90 min	86 min	122 min	load-in
Last dance, music curfewhard stop	30 min	30 min	33 min	band

Where the day lands, run by run

Each bar is the share of runs finishing in that quarter hour. The curfew sits at 12:30am.

1:30am0%
1:45am1%
2:00am6%
2:15am14%
2:30am23%
2:45am23%
3:00am18%
3:15am9%
3:30am5%
3:45am1%
4:00am0%
4:15am0%

The three changes worth making

Start the day 165 minutes earlier
+69 points
Pulling the call time forward by 165 minutes covers the worst case without touching a single block.
Portraits miss the light in 100 of 100 runs
+12 points
Move portraits before the ceremony or split them, last light does not negotiate.

Hard stop exposure

Last dance, music curfew starts later than planned in 99 of 100 runs.

Run it on your own next event

Put your real run of show in, see the score, and decide after fourteen days whether it earned its place. If the number is uncomfortable, that is the point: better to read it now than at 23:40 with a band watching the clock.

Score your next event See the whole studio